A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
